-46h (GENERAL)

[Gendo'sPapa]

Do we know the length of it?

If the short is over 10 minutes I will be genuinely (and pleasantly) surprised.

[DantesInferno]

https://www.eva-info.jp/18821

Mmh, the ticket is about half the price of the standard edition Blu-Ray... But you get to watch 2 full movies and change, I guess...

[ElMariachi]

Do we know the length of it?

If the short is over 10 minutes I will be genuinely (and pleasantly) surprised.

10 minutes doesn't give the chance to tell anything except showing us a couple of pretty images.
MsenjaKagami's estimate of 20 minute (aka an episode length) seems better to tell something meaningful, especially if the story will have two POV characters. (Midori and Asuka)

[nerv bae]

I guess we'll have our answer in 10 days.

Putting in my Impact(s) prediction ahead of release:

1) Mark 06, the 12th Angel, and Lilith initiate "Impact 06." Unclear if this is a resumption of Third Impact to continue purifying the land using a different combination of Evas and Angels, or an initiation of Fourth Impact to begin purifying the souls even though Third Impact is still incomplete.

2) To stop Impact 06, both spears are necessary, and so Cassius is removed from Unit 01. Lillin cross their fingers that this won't make things worse.

3) Unit 01 resumes "Impact 01," the Third Impact. Lillin dismayed.

4) Impact 01 and Impact 06 run concurrently, purifying the land and the souls (if Impact 06 had been busy with the land, it changes effect to the souls). The red earth is an effect of land purification and the skull rain and Failures of Infinity are effects of soul purification. The concurrency also produces hybrid effects such as the giant teeth in the red earth.

5) Impact 06 is stopped using both spears. The purification of the souls ceases and its effects are limited to Tokyo 3 and surrounding areas (n.b., there are no Failures of Infinity in Paris).

6) Impact 01 runs to completion. The effects are global such that all land unprotected by pillars is purified. This multi-Impact event is remembered by the Lillin as Actual Third Impact. (edit: removed "Actual" per conversation below.)

I think there's dialogue and other evidence that conflict with this theory but YOLO we'll find out the truth soon.

[Konja7]

The fact that Asuka and Midori's VAs are the special guests of this official screening pretty much confirms that -46h will have them as the main POV characters.

The relevance of Midori in -46h is intriguing. In 3.0+1.0, her big problem was the N3I.

That's why I'm pretty sure we will finally discover the connection between N3I and the Third Impact.

6) Impact 01 runs to completion. The effects are global such that all land unprotected by pillars is purified. This multi-Impact event is remembered by the Lillin as Actual Third Impact.[/list]

Actual Third Impact is a term created by fans. It's never been used in the movies.

In fact, the only Lilin who has mentioned the Third Impact after the timeskip was Kensuke when he mentioned that Kaji's sacrifice was necessary to stop it. The other people mentioning the Third Impact were Kaworu, Asuka and Gendo.

[mastafishere]

Isn’t there still an angel completely unaccounted for? The 11th or 12th? Maybe we’ll get an angel battle.

[nerv bae]

Actual Third Impact is a term created by fans. It's never been used in the movies.

Oops, thanks, edited original post to correct this. The rest of my prediction stands.

Isn’t there still an angel completely unaccounted for? The 11th or 12th? Maybe we’ll get an angel battle.

Yup, we see the 10th defeated in 2.0, and by 3.0 the 11th has presumably come and gone while the 12th is trapped in the Mark 06.

[ChrisTamv]

3) Unit 01 resumes "Impact 01," the Third Impact. Lillin dismayed.

Interesting but I don't see how Unit 01 ties into absolutely anything we already know about Third Impact. I've already written extensively about how I believe that Shinji & Unit 01 most definitely have no involvement in Third Impact and there's nothing really that contradicts that except a single thing, that is, Kaworu's still - puzzling revelations in 3.0, which however can make sense in the context of his ulterior motives.

I just think Unit 01 was stopped, the Lance was removed with no effect before it was sent by Seele, who at the time had direct control of NERV, to space so it could be as inaccessible as possible to the exiled Gendo. Then actual Third Impact starts traditionally as per Seele's scenario when the 12th Angel is released to Terminal Dogma and merges with Lilith. Someone under Seele's control must me at its center though so that's why the then - autonomous Mark.06 is sent with a Spear to decapitate Lilith as she's transforming and the Impact begins, contain the Angel inside it so it can be used for (Near) Fourth Impact, before merging at her neck, therefore taking control of the Impact before piercing itself with the Spear as part of the ritual.

Third Impact happens according to Seele's scenario, successfully "purifying" the lands and turning every human being on Earth to a Failure of Infinity (kinda weird but it's pretty fitting thematically and more feasible than Seele manufacturing literally billions of FoIs on top of the thousands Mark.07 seen in 3.0+1.0. Then the Impact is stopped before it can affect everyone by Kaji who flies his VTOL carrying another Lance, before releasing it on top of Lilith and stopping the Impact by piercing her. Then he loses control of the VTOL and tragically dies.

I'm praying than in a few days I'll finally be proven right or wrong. Fingers crossed XD

[Konja7]

Interesting but I don't see how Unit 01 ties into absolutely anything we already know about Third Impact. I've already written extensively about how I believe that Shinji & Unit 01 most definitely have no involvement in Third Impact and there's nothing really that contradicts that except a single thing, that is, Kaworu's still - puzzling revelations in 3.0, which however can make sense in the context of his ulterior motives.

Honestly, the fact that they never said or implied Shinji shouldn't be blamed for the state of the World (or that Kaworu was lying) seems to me the biggest proof the story wants we to assume Shinji's N3I has responsability in the state of thee World.

Also, Kaworu doesn't really have an ulterior motive. He is sincere in his desire to make Shinji happy and his desire to repair the Earth (his friendship with Kaji confirms that he wants to help humans). I guess his desire to make Shinji happy being a projection of his desire for himself to be happy could be considered an ulterior motive, but I'm not even sure Kaworu was aware of that.

I should mention that the imageboards of an early version of Q (released with the 3.333 Blu-ray) reveals that the original plan was that Kaji will show the destroyed Earth to Shinji and inform him that his actions at the end of 2.0 has responsability for this. This role likely falls on Kaworu at the end, because they decided Kaji died in the Third Impact.

I just think Unit 01 was stopped, the Lance was removed with no effect before it was sent by Seele, who at the time had direct control of NERV, to space so it could be as inaccessible as possible to the exiled Gendo. Then actual Third Impact starts traditionally as per Seele's scenario when the 12th Angel is released to Terminal Dogma and merges with Lilith. Someone under Seele's control must me at its center though so that's why the then - autonomous Mark.06 is sent with a Spear to decapitate Lilith as she's transforming and the Impact begins, contain the Angel inside it so it can be used for (Near) Fourth Impact, before merging at her neck, therefore taking control of the Impact before piercing itself with the Spear as part of the ritual.

In fact, there are hints the Third Impact between 2.0 and 3.0 wasn't SEELE's original plan.

SEELE created the Wunders, but they couldn't use it for the Third Impact. Also, they need to make Mark-06 autonomous.

[Blockio]

Yeah, 01 was definitely still at the core of 3I. Shin talks fairly explicitly about the difference between Near Third Impact, the thing at the end of Ha that Shinji and 01 started and was only temporarily halted by Cassius, and Third Impact proper and how it required Kaji's soul as sacrifice to be stopped for good.
This obviously leaves some questions that to my knowledge noone has found any satisfying answers for (or even attempted to answer them - I'm sure there's hints towards the mechanics in there somewhere, but they'll probably require quite a lot of peeling back layers) - most pressingly what constitutes a soul being sacrificed in an event that killed billions over the course of a handful of years, most of those likely as it was going on.
My best guess to that end would be some degree of waving in the general direction of the spears (here's a thought - is that what changed Cassius to Longinus?), but beyond that I'm also drawing quite the blank of what could possibly be the underlying meaning

[nerv bae]

Then the Impact is stopped before it can affect everyone by Kaji who flies his VTOL carrying another Lance, before releasing it on top of Lilith and stopping the Impact by piercing her. Then he loses control of the VTOL and tragically dies.

... and Third Impact proper and how it required Kaji's soul as sacrifice to be stopped for good. This obviously leaves some questions that to my knowledge noone has found any satisfying answers for ... most pressingly what constitutes a soul being sacrificed in an event that killed billions over the course of a handful of years, most of those likely as it was going on.

I'll guess that Kaji got near awakened Lilith in his VTOL, and that his intervention allowed both spears to be used to stop the Impact, but I don't think that his VTOL actually lifted either spear. We don't know what they weigh but I think they've got to be too heavy for that!

[ChrisTamv]

Honestly, the fact that they never said or implied Shinji shouldn't be blamed for the state of the World (or that Kaworu was lying) seems to me the biggest proof the story wants we to assume Shinji's N3I has responsability in the state of thee World.

They do more than hint to both of these though, at multiple points. From the beginning of 3.0 every single character except Kaworu blamed Shinji for N3I specifically, both with their words and actions, but even so in 3.0+1.0 even his his responsibility for that event is ultimately rejected by Misato and other member of WILLE. As for Kaworu, it is important to note that him lying & manipulating Shinji was something he also did in the original, and something that fits with his mysterious Godly, too - good - to - be - true persona.

Most importantly though, in a well - written story, a character's explanation of events being completely incompatible and especially contradictive at times with everything we ultimately know about said story, should be enough proof that said character is lying or ignorant, accompanied of course by presentation choices that that hint to this and followed by the story itself addressing this fact in some way.

Kaworu fits this description very well. Everyone blames Shinji for N3I specifically (even characters who despise him, who would be more than inclined to blame him for the much more major Third Impact if he was actually responsible for it) and their treatment of him can be justified in this context. Shinji doesn't feel responsible for any of this destruction until Kaworu reveals to him that he was supposedly the trigger, only for him to then immediately present his plan as his only opportunity for salvation, without revealing a single further detail about his plan. Shinji accepts, and you know the rest.

Also, Kaworu doesn't really have an ulterior motive. He is sincere in his desire to make Shinji happy and his desire to repair the Earth (his friendship with Kaji seems to confirm that he wants to help humans). I guess his desire to make Shinji happy being a projection of his desire for himself to be happy could be considered an ulterior motive, but I'm not even sure Kaworu was aware of that.

It is made completely clear in the finale of 3.0+1.0 that Kaworu's intentions weren't actually to make Shinji happy, but to make himself happy by giving Shinji what he thought they wanted (and he was extremely mistaken in what he wanted, as he accepts twice, both in 3.0 and in 3.0+1.0, that he "misunderstood Shinji's feelings"). This is the definition of an ulterior motive, and quite a selfish one at that. He isn't a bad person, he unintentionally did what he did, but Shinji's happiness wasn't his selfless goal for sure.

I should mention that the imageboards of an early version of Q (released with the 3.333 Blu-ray) reveals that the original plan was that Kaji will show the destroyed Earth to Shinji and inform him that his actions at the end of 2.0 has responsability for this. This role likely falls on Kaworu at the end, because they decided Kaji died in the Third Impact.

That is a very good point. I'd love to see this storyboard for myself if you have it handy. With how much stuff was ultimately changed though, obviously I'd take this with a grain of salt.

In fact, there are hints the Third Impact between 2.0 and 3.0 wasn't SEELE's original plan.

SEELE created the Wunders, but they couldn't use it for the Third Impact. Also, they need to make Mark-06 autonomous.

Hmm. I went back actually and read all the sub transcripts from 1.0 and 2.0 that had "Instrumentality" or "Seele" as keywords. Their plan in the first 2 movies is the following: First, they will kill all the Angels, before creating the "true" Evangelion, an actual God, Mark.06, resurrect Lilith, and bring about the Human Instrumentality Project, which they also refer to as their "covenant with Lilith". Considering how similar this all is to what ultimately happened between 2.0, and 3.0, I'm quite certain Third Impact happened according to their plan.

[ChrisTamv]

but I don't think that his VTOL actually lifted either spear. We don't know what they weigh but I think they've got to be too heavy for that!

This is pretty much the only problem I can find with this interpretation, yeah. The Spear just seems too heavy for a single VTOL to lift. However, I can't think of any other explanation based on where exactly the second Spear pierced Lilith. On her back, facing downwards.

[Konja7]

They do more than hint to both of these though, at multiple points. From the beginning of 3.0 every single character except Kaworu blamed Shinji for N3I specifically, both with their words and actions, but even so in 3.0+1.0 even his his responsibility for that event is ultimately rejected by Misato and other member of WILLE. As for Kaworu, it is important to note that him lying & manipulating Shinji was something he also did in the original, and something that fits with his mysterious Godly, too - good - to - be - true persona.

Misato doesn't reject Shinji's responsibility for the N3I. She just mentioned that she should be blamed because Shinji was her subordinate. Other members of WILLE recognize N3I wasn't intentional, but it was mainly to "excuse" Misato not killing Shinji in 3.0.

It's true that they only mentioned the N3I, but this is supposed to complement the previous information from Kaworu (who says the N3I was the trigger for the Third Impact). That's why the story never says Shinji isn't responsible for the state of the World.

I also hope -46h reveals more things about the Third Impact, but I really doubt it would say Eva-01 and N3I weren't involved at all.

It is made completely clear in the finale of 3.0+1.0 that Kaworu's intentions weren't actually to make Shinji happy, but to make himself happy by giving Shinji what he thought they wanted (and he was extremely mistaken in what he wanted, as he accepts twice, both in 3.0 and in 3.0+1.0, that he "misunderstood Shinji's feelings"). This is the definition of an ulterior motive, and quite a selfish one at that. He isn't a bad person, he unintentionally did what he did, but Shinji's happiness wasn't his selfless goal for sure.

Kaworu mentioned he wanted to make Shinji happy because he sees himself reflected on Shinji. That's why Kaji says he wanted Shinji's happines to make himself happy. It's selfish, but his wish to make Shinji was honest.

Now, Kaworu was definitely wrong about what Shinji needed. Kaworu though Shinji needed hope and redemption (he directly said this), but this was a mistake. Shinji needed time to heal, reflect and make his own decisions (what he received in Village-3). Kaworu realizes this before his death in 3.0:

That is a very good point. I'd love to see this storyboard for myself if you have it handy. With how much stuff was ultimately changed though, obviously I'd take this with a grain of salt.

The imageboards are here: https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x83t7n7

The password is youcannotredo.

[kuribo-04]

Are we still going on about the "Kaworu is secretly evil" stuff after Shin Eva?? How?

[Blockio]

Not evil, but definitely misguided and projecting his own desires onto Shinji; he says so himself

[2Lacissal2]

Still kind of wild that the Blu Ray’s release is a week away and we still have no idea, other than a ballpark estimate from the back to back film screening, what it’s runtime is.

[Gendo'sPapa]

Still kind of wild that the Blu Ray’s release is a week away and we still have no idea, other than a ballpark estimate from the back to back film screening, what it’s runtime is.

Khara's very good at keeping things secret. No one knew what 3.0 was actually about until the opening night shows. And I think the 3.0+1.0 runtime only went public like two weeks before the release and only because a movie theater listed the runtime.

[Szmitten]

So, Tuesday earliest? Does Japan famously never have a retailer crack and accidentally break street date?

[nerv bae]

Putting in my Impact(s) prediction ahead of release:

...

4) Impact 01 and Impact 06 run concurrently, purifying the land and the souls (if Impact 06 had been busy with the land, it changes effect to the souls). The red earth is an effect of land purification and the skull rain and Failures of Infinity are effects of soul purification. The concurrency also produces hybrid effects such as the giant teeth in the red earth.

...

I think there's dialogue and other evidence that conflict with this theory but YOLO we'll find out the truth soon.

Supplemental prediction prompted by Gendo's "world you refused" line as mentioned here yesterday:

4.5) During the concurrent Impacts, Shinji in re-awakened Unit 01 is given an opportunity to create tang world, but refuses it in favor of the results we see. I think there's low likelihood that this'll actually be on screen since, after all, Rebuild 2.5 (and thus -46h) isn't supposed to be Shinji's story. But this is the only way I can think of to make sense of Gendo's line that doesn't put EoE and Rebuilds into the same continuity. (Also, pretty sure I read this prediction somewhere else previously, so, not mine originally!)