Inspired by the discussion in the Avatar thread, I created a topic solely for the Oscars. Even though I haven't seen nearly any 2009 film, I would like to share my guesses about the nominations and (eventually) winners.

First of all, 10 films will be nominated for Best Picture this year so pretty much anything can be nominated this year. Here's a few films that I consider possible:

The Hurt Locker: Critics have hailed it as the smartest and best Iraq War drama so far. While I personally doubt its quality, I'm certain it is probably the most likely film to win the category. It has a relevant (even if overused) subject and a fresh approach - and most of all, it's extremely serious. That's certainly going to attract the attention of members of the Academy.

Precious: A film about an overweight black girl is so clearly an Oscar bait film. Although it might not have been originally intended as one, it is certainly something the Academy will notice. It helps a lot that it has been mostly praised by American critics.

Up in the Air: This year could be Jason Reitman's year.

The Lovely Bones: Won't probably be Jackson's year again, but it might receive a nomination.

Up: Pixar finally has a chance to win the Best Picture Oscar now that there will be 10 nominees for the category - and Up seems to be their best film in years.

Nine: Come on, it's a Rob Marshall film. The Academy loves the guy. He already won the Best Picture with Chicago which was basically the same film with a smaller cast and it was not a rip-off of a great film. I don't believe in its chances to win, though - because it didn't please the critics.

A Single Man: It seems like a deliciously dramatic film with a supposedly strong leading performance. In fact, Colin Firth might win an Oscar for his performance.

A Serious Man: Directed by Coens so it will automatically get a nomination - although it might be too funny to be considered for the award.

Inglourious Basterds: It will get a nomination at best, but because it's a Quentin Tarantino film and way too tongue-in-cheek, it has no chances of winning the award.

Invictus: OSCAR BAIT. Especially because it's directed by Clint Eastwood. The Academy loves him more than anyone else.

Avatar: Will be nominated only due to its popularity and technological achievements.

The real interest will be in the acting awards this time. There's a huge number of male performances that could be nominated: Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker), George Clooney (Up in the Air), Colin Firth (A Single Man), Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart), Morgan Freeman (Invictus), Viggo Mortensen (The Road) and Matt Damon (The Informant!). I will be cheering for Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds) to get the Oscar for Best Supporting Actor.

The category for Best Foreign Language Film is quite unpredictable, but it usually provides pleasant surprises. Such as the winner of last year, Departures.

DISCUSS.

PS: Because I'm a fan of Saoirse Ronan, I hope she gets a nod for her performance in The Lovely Bones.

I had a few problems with The Hurt Locker, which I will divulge after I see it a second time (to make sure my memory's not making shit up). That being said, its levels of suspense were Hitchcockian. It has this award in a bag. However, if it wins for best editing, I will punt a bunny.

I'm surprised to see predictions for Chen Kaige's Forever Enthralled as a nominee for the Foreign Language category, especially considering the rather lukewarm reception the film's gotten worldwide. Reuters is predicting that Bong Joon-Ho's Mother, Michael Haneke's The White Ribbon, and Jacques Audiard's A Prophet will be among the ranks.

Oz wrote:Invictus: OSCAR BAIT. Especially because it's directed by Clint Eastwood. The Academy loves him more than anyone else.

He's fucking Clint Eastwood. Lots of fucking people love him. Loads love him more than the Academy ever could. I really doubt he ever makes his films purposely to win an Oscar. I think he just makes films because he enjoys making them.

It's a Los Angeles thing. The Academy loves Eastwood and hates Scorsese.

I have yet to see 3 or 4 of the movies you've posted but don't you think Coraline deserves a nomination? The Golden Globes thought so. I would be delighted to see it win over or Up! for Best Animated even though I know it won't, heh.

I agree with you on Tarantino's latest. It won't win but it will be nice to see him get some appreciation. Up In The Air is going to nab a few awards for sure, at least one of the actors in it will win too I bet. It's a well put together movie so no qualms from me on that.

I really liked the Hurt Locker but I don't see it winning anything. The competition it has is too stiff. Precious has a very strong chance for best picture this year however, and Invictus will get actor/director nods but I do not see this movie winning best picture either.

My prediction is Nine wins every award in every single category because its a musical and the academy is like a bunch of rabid Twilight preteens when it comes to those. Like when they awarded the shit out of 'Chicago' instead of the movies/actors that actually deserved them.

I also think 10 nominations is far to excessive. Yeah it presents a good Top Ten list for the year of sorts, but its far too easy to see the five-seven films that are not going to win.

@backseatjesus: Invictus is an obvious target for the Academy because it is a political biopic. I don't have anything against Eastwood, but the Academy gives him too much love in my opinion.

@Orphan Of Darkness: Coraline might not get a chance in Best Picture because animation is not appreciated enough for the award. It will certainly get a nomination for the Best Animated Feature. If Up joins the Best Picture race, Coraline is more likely to win the Animation Oscar.

The real obstacle for Nine's triumph is its failure among critics. Just look at the Rotten Tomatoes score. It might win a few minor awards though (i.e. Best Costume Design).

I think it's great to have 10 nominees because that gives a better chance for films that would never have a chance otherwise. Besides, this way the Academy can pick popular nominees so that the TV broadcast gets more viewers. The broadcast has had weak ratings in the past few years.

EDIT: I totally forgot Jane Campion's Bright Star. Its chances to win are relatively small though.

backseatjesus wrote:

Oz wrote:Invictus: OSCAR BAIT. Especially because it's directed by Clint Eastwood. The Academy loves him more than anyone else.

He's fucking Clint Eastwood. Lots of fucking people love him. Loads love him more than the Academy ever could. I really doubt he ever makes his films purposely to win an Oscar. I think he just makes films because he enjoys making them.

And by all practical measurements, he's the best director in the business right now. He finishes his movies on time, under budget, and always turns a profit. With that sort of consistency, he effectively has carte blanche.

Coraline winning "Best Animated Picture" would be great


anyways, I can see Christoph Waltz getting an oscar nomination for his performance in "Inglourious Basterds"

I didn't even see "Up", so I can't comment on it at all

<- Has zero interest in or respect for The Oscars

Nine has gotten very lukewarm reviews so I doubt it'll get nominated.

the Oscars, as contrived as they are, is always interesting to watch

The show is fine, I just have no interest in the awards themselves. I doubt most of those in the industry do either beyond a respect/monetary boost that it provides.

I wish the ceremony was only about two hours long and stopped taking itself as seriously as it does considering IMO it's little more than an elaborate publicity stunt for the studios and their films

I have a feeling either Up in the Air, or Avatar would win. I would want Avatar to win, but Up in the Air is more likely to win.

maybe I'm being too much of a fanboy or film dweeb, but I would be shocked if Avatar got something like Best Picture

IMO, the Academy has been going out of its way for a few generations now to NOT slap Oscars onto the big budget, blockbuster-type films

sure, there's The Lord of the Rings, Titanic and a few other recent examples to the contrary, but still, there's so many films that the Academy awards (pardon the pun) that I don't care about at all

@Jimbo: I don't respect the Oscars either because the awards are hardly ever given for artistical merit of any sort. There's usually some other silly reason to select the winners. However, I'm interested in seeing which films the Academy chooses to praise every year. And betting never gets old.

By the way, what do you think about the hosts (Alec Baldwin and Steve Martin)?

PS: I wish the Oscars would still be like this.

The Oscars are like the World Olympics. At times it's nominations are legitimate, but there are times where you can tell someone's paying off the judges.

I liked Coraline and Up a lot. I'm fairly certain that Up is the better of the two, and has a better shot at best animated feature. While Coraline was very enjoyable, Up had people in tears. That first 20 minutes on its own deserves an Oscar.

The Eva Monkey wrote:While Coraline was very enjoyable, Up had people in tears. That first 20 minutes on its own deserves an Oscar.

no kidding... I'm not quite sure just why it was so brilliant but... it just was.