Speculation - Blu-ray release window

[kuribo-04]

I hope a speculation topic is OK to make here. Didn't seem like Shin talk fit in Chit Chat. If not please move the topic.

I would love it if we could get as "analytical" as possible despite this being speculation. Though I'm gonna talk about the release window, feel free to add anything about the format you expect the film to release in. Because right now I have no idea if a 4k blu-ray might happen. Or if a 4k blu-ray would come bundled with a normal blu-ray.

Basically if anyone here has more idea than me about the "industry standards", please share it. I don't know too much sadly.

About the possible release:
I think we all would rather have the film earlier, and I think I'm not the only one afraid of the sometimes eternal wait times between theatrical and home release.

Toho is distributing the film, and Promare took 8 months. Films like Your Name took 11. A "bad sign".

I just wanted to get to the bottom of why these films take this long. I suspected it could be that since a film like Your Name was so insanely succesful, people kept going to the cinema months after and they wanted to wait as long as possible. But then Promare didn't do numbers anywhere near that (it didn't do numbers near what I expect Eva to do either), yet it still took 8 months as I said.
Then there's Demon Slayer, most succesful film in Japan ever. An october 2020 film that doesn't have a release date yet for its home release.

It's also of note that for previous Eva films the times were 8 months (1.01), 11 months (2.22) and 5 1/2 months (3.0). It's hard for me to determine why these fluctuated so much. 2.22 had extra scenes, but AFAIK 1.01 didn't have much work done to it (reason that we got 1.11 later).

Lastly, a glimmer of hope: I just looked at a certain popular franchise Toei distributes. And Toei also distributes Shin Eva alongside Toho. And that is Dragon Ball.

Battle of Gods, Return of F and Broly, the last three films, all had about 5 months pass between theatrical and home release. Broly was pretty recent too being a December 2018 film.
The first two also had 3.0-ish box office, 50 and 60 million dollars. The third one made 120 million internationally, but that didn't change anything about the rather quick home release.

In facty Toei was so flexible (not that I expect anything like the following to happen with Eva) that they let Funimation release Dragon Ball Broly in the US in april, before its BD release in Japan, and just four months after its theatrical release (with the obvious consequence that Japanese people could import it).

Also, how, if at all, do you think will the pandemic influence this?

I hope I made sense.

The movie will come when it comes...but one can dream with a late August release, right?

[girlifyoudidnt]

Promare stayed in theaters for a long time, and had massive legs despite its first week premiere being lower than expected. So long that they ended up screening the English dub as well in Japan.
If Shin Eva has great reception from audiences and screens for a long time due to demand (or the distributors push for a longer screening time due to it being the FINAL film), the blu-ray release will end up being further out.

I can see it getting released this year though, would feel weird for the wait to be longer than that.

[kuribo-04]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stand_by_Me_Doraemon
Another find. Stand by me Doraemon came after six months, also distributed by Toho. It made more than three times what 3.0 made at the box office.
It's really hard to see any sort of pattern here.

[GhostlyOcam]

I believe Stand by Me Doraemon 1 being made available rather fast despite being a box office juggernaut and having amazing legs is to avoid confusion and overlap in marketing, they had another 2D annual Doraemon movie in March (Nobita's Space Heroes, which I'd say is not very good) so they had to end SBM's promotion cycle before that.

[kuribo-04]

∆ Hope=crushed.

Unless Toho sees Shin Eva and Shin Ultraman as a similar situation.

Obviously I hope Eva gets as much money as possible too.
Would be ideal though if that is compatible with my wish lol.

[GhostlyOcam]

Relasing a Hideaki Anno-written tokusatsu blockbuster on the big screen at the same time as releasing the grand finale of another Hideaki Anno-directed mecha anime feature sounds bonkers (Anno domination!), but realistically and unfortunately, using Ultraman's early summer release window to predict Shin Eva's home video release is a bit too soon (March to June/July, only 3-4 months).

A fall release sounds like the most reasonable prediction for the time being, maybe around September-October or exactly on October 4 in conjunction with NGE episode 1's anniversary just because.

[kuribo-04]

Relasing a Hideaki Anno-written tokusatsu blockbuster on the big screen at the same time as releasing the grand finale of another Hideaki Anno-directed mecha anime feature sounds bonkers (Anno domination!)

Yeah lol.
I guess it just worked out tgat way with the pandemic.

A fall release sounds like the most reasonable prediction for the time being, maybe around September-October or exactly on October 4 in conjunction with NGE episode 1's anniversary just because.

Well September would be great for me.

[Gendo'sPapa]

I'll never understand why the 3.0 Japanese Bluray release was so quick - Theatrical: 11.17.2012. Home Video: 04.24.2013. Just over 5 months. - but if they do a similar release with the final film that would put it around mid-August right after the Olympics. Sounds too quick to me but who knows anymore.

I'd expect something similar to Shin Godzilla - Theatrical: 07.29.2016. Home Video: 03.22.2017. Just under 8 months. - but the Japanese home video market is a mystery. There doesn't appear to be a rush to get films on home video - I approve of this myself - so some films may be on disc in a few months and others take a year. There seems to be no set industry pattern in the theatrical to home video release schedule unlike in the US where it - pre-pandemic, we'll have to see what happens now that EVERYTHING is changing - had generally shortened it to around 3 months on average. There were exceptions here and there but generally if a movie came out March 1st you could expect it be available on disc around June 1st.

So who knows. Though now that I think about it it would be cute if they went with September 1, 2021. The 14 year anniversary of the release of You Are (Not) Alone and the start of this crazy thing.

[Ray]

Will Funimation still be picking up and distributing the final movie?

[kboyrulez12345]

Will Funimation still be picking up and distributing the final movie?

Nobody knows. Currently GKids own the rights to the original series, but that doesn't mean anything. As for the previous films, it would seem that the license with them is expired because the first two films are out of print I think. So yeah, it's currently unknown how it Shin will be distributed yet.

[kuribo-04]

I'll have to just accept the uncertainty.
It may be childish, but that feels very hard lol. But after all these years that's also normal right?

[FreakyFilmFan4ever]

Funimation doesn't seem to be renewing their licenses for Eva Jo or Eva Ha, which feels counterintuitive if Funi were planning to gear up to acquire the rights to Shin Eva. The current theory is that GKIDS is gonna scoop up the license for the NTE films, but that's only because they

A. have the license for NGE, and
B. are completionists about almost everything they acquire.

[Ray]

Nobody knows. Currently GKids own the rights to the original series, but that doesn't mean anything. As for the previous films, it would seem that the license with them is expired because the first two films are out of print I think. So yeah, it's currently unknown how it Shin will be distributed yet.

I just really hope this doesn't end with us unable to see Spike Tiffany and Allison come back. Hopefully if the license with Funimation is over Gkids or whichever dubbing co does pick it up they are at least smart enough to bring back the voice actors who did the last three movies one more time. Hopefully they don't redub all four movies with the Netflix actors. No offense to them of course. But they aren't Spike, Tiff, and Allison.

[Heaven Piercing Man]

I have no stake on the English dubs (not my language and I prefer subs) but I think that as a matter of artistic integrity and completeness they should get the old cast for Shin. I feel something akin to "release the Snyder Cut" when it comes to it.

[Thesufferingpumpkin]

Considering the amount of huff the funimation president said about the Netflix redubbing saying it was a disservice for the fans

You would think funimation would do all they can to get the licence for shin using the original English VOs

But do they have the money to compete? Probably not

[GhostlyOcam]

After the mess that was Funi's 3.33 release, I don't think khara want to work with them anymore. GKIDS getting the rights for the Rebuild films would be a good thing for their international streaming accessibility too considering they're on a good partnership with HBO Max. I've always find it weird despite the big name, the films are relatively hard to access on foreign markets.

[Thesufferingpumpkin]

After the mess that was Funi's 3.33 release, I don't think khara want to work with them anymore. GKIDS getting the rights for the Rebuild films would be a good thing for their international streaming accessibility too considering they're on a good partnership with HBO Max. I've always find it weird despite the big name, the films are relatively hard to access on foreign markets.

I do agree that 3.33 for funimation was a total cluster fuck.

Especially given the fact that khara had to step in to do script rewriting.

I can deffo see a line in shin going “I’m Shinji ikari, I’m the third children”

[cyharding]

After the mess that was Funi's 3.33 release, I don't think khara want to work with them anymore.

That's why I'm hoping the Japanese Blu-ray will have an English subtitle track on it. Cut out the middleman.

[Ray]

After the mess that was Funi's 3.33 release, I don't think khara want to work with them anymore. GKIDS getting the rights for the Rebuild films would be a good thing for their international streaming accessibility too considering they're on a good partnership with HBO Max. I've always find it weird despite the big name, the films are relatively hard to access on foreign markets.

This was all caused because of a misunderstanding because a Khara representative didn’t understand American anime culture versus Japanese anime culture

[hui43210]

After the mess that was Funi's 3.33 release, I don't think khara want to work with them anymore. GKIDS getting the rights for the Rebuild films would be a good thing for their international streaming accessibility too considering they're on a good partnership with HBO Max. I've always find it weird despite the big name, the films are relatively hard to access on foreign markets.

This was all caused because of a misunderstanding because a Khara representative didn’t understand American anime culture versus Japanese anime culture

Actually it's because Funi is trash, and Khara realized they should stop trusting their IP with them. I really hope the Netflix team gets to redo all four films.