FML general thread [8]

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Re: FML general thread [8]

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Postby Shamsiel-kun » Mon Mar 02, 2020 1:56 pm

We are seeing a very nice exponential curve until now:

day 1: 1 case
day 2: 2 cases
day 3: 4 cases
day 4: 10 cases
day 5: 18 cases

Prediction:
Tomorrow: 36-40 cases
Wednesday: 72-80 cases
Thursday: 152-160 cases
Friday: 304-320 cases
etc.

Although it might go up quicker, because thanks to STUPID(tm) we also now have two hospitals closed because two of the newest cases laid in them with bad respiratory disease with no diagnosis for over a week. The STUPID(tm) is that the hospital employees didn't see the need to test them on COVID-19 because there was no specific instruction from the authorities to test them. :facepalm:
What the F... did they think? There's an epidemic of a dangerous respiratory disease spreading throughout Europe and beyond, they receive a patient in heavy respiratory distress that is getting worse fast, and they think "nothing to see, situation normal"? Really?? :rolleyes:
And then there are still deluded morons who are saying the Dutch situation is exemplary...
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Re: FML general thread [8]

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Postby Blockio » Tue Mar 03, 2020 8:03 am

The most recent numbers in China that I've come across are that the amount of reported new infections has gone down by more than 50%, so that curve will only be rising for so long
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Re: FML general thread [8]

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Postby Shamsiel-kun » Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:13 am

View Original PostBlockio wrote:The most recent numbers in China that I've come across are that the amount of reported new infections has gone down by more than 50%, so that curve will only be rising for so long


That's indeed normal, as most outbreaks follow a certain type of curve that starts slowly, then grows exponentially, until it reaches a point where it starts slowing down, to eventually go flat. Bacteria in a Petri dish grow in the same manner, until they have to slow down growing because either the physical space is gone or the food is. In the cases of Covid-19 the limiting factor is transmission ability, which is why lock-down works as a containment measure.

The outbreak in the Netherlands almost follows a textbook curve where the number of patients doubles every day or so. I think I'm gonna plot it in a chart, it's too nice not to.
Unfortunately it also means that the assertion by the Dutch government that they are "limiting" the outbreak is utter horseshit. They are not.
And based on my limited sampling of going to the supermarket and listening to what people said, there are many more cases that are deliberately being ignored by the authorities because they don't match the very stringent set of symptoms that only the Netherlands are following :facepalm: :cringe: . And in each such talk there are complaints about the atrocious communication by the authorities :rolleyes: .

However, lets go back to the curve, and think about the really bad bit: In China the outbreak took 3 months to start decelerating. This is actually the time span at the end of which in the UK they expect the outbreak to peak. So from the moment an outbreak becomes detectable (patients bad enough to end up in hospital), there are 90 days of potentially exponential growth.

A quick little Excel table shows me that that would mean that in 20 days close to 100% of the Dutch population will be infected if the authorities don't seriously gear up (the 100% actually won't be reached because group immunity occurs at a certain point before that). It's quite fortunate in a sense that long before that the first people will die (except for the poor sods who do die, obviously). However, the Dutch authorities are setting things up in a way that the death toll will be relatively higher than in other countries, due to both the insincere manner they approach this and their utterly 'brilliant' plan to use care homes to house Covid-19 patients. I kid you not...house patients exactly there where the people most at risk of getting it are :deskbang: They could just as well have suggested creating some Death Camps. :rolleyes:

(sorry for the rant, but the incompetence displayed really pisses me off)
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Re: FML general thread [8]

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Postby ErgoProxy » Fri Mar 06, 2020 2:36 pm

Shamsiel-kun wrote:Death Camps

Careful with that axe, Eugene.

Shamsiel-kun wrote:sorry for the rant

(Since we're on an Eva forum.) Imagine this was done on purpose by SEELE and ask yourself does your rant goes against their shady interests or not so. And before next rant, at least make sure you got paid.
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Re: FML general thread [8]

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Postby Shamsiel-kun » Tue Mar 10, 2020 3:32 pm

Well, after yesterday's press conference where the Dutch prime minister and the boss of the health crisis team demonstrated they were complete clowns by shaking hands after announcing that shaking hands was banned, more FUD like 7-day quarantine (instead of 14), a doctored increase of patients (the people who get better are deducted from the total, making the numbers not comparable with other countries), the announcement that even less people are going to get tested (because A. they maxed out testing capacity already as they didn't plan ahead, and B. it's a way of artificially limiting the increase to make the Netherlands look better internationally and be able to keep up the FUD that it's only a bad flu), I've reached the following conclusions:
- Better get it early, as it increases the chance you don't end up dead (see Italy).
- Stockpile, stockpile, stockpile.
- Seek cover. Try to stay away from all of the complete morons who believe the FUD that the Netherlands are magically safe from a disaster like in Italy and China.
- Should I get sick, consider traveling to Germany or Belgium to get treatment, since the Dutch authorities are denying people getting tested.
- Italy, don't worry, the Netherlands is going to be MUCH worse than you in 2-3 weeks time. :glomp: :rolleyes:

Fortunately, that press conference also seems to have alerted other countries to the idiocy going on here. Unfortunately, it won't help us.

I am afraid. :sniffle:
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Re: FML general thread [8]

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Postby child of Lilith » Tue Mar 10, 2020 4:47 pm

Hang in there, Shamsiel-kun.

Got to admit I never would have expected something like this from your country. I've always heard go things about it.
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Re: FML general thread [8]

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Postby robersora » Tue Mar 10, 2020 5:23 pm

^
Austria's response has been quite different to the Dutch'.
After a dramatic spike of cases in Italy, Austria's administration decided to take pretty severe measurements, despite having a relatively low number in cases for now. They justified the measurements because the actual number is surely higher, as incubation times is two weeks. They want to ensure that the spreading of the virus slows down enough, to prevent a collapse of our health system and ensure that everyone who is in need of treatment is able to get it.
Right now, the following measurements have been implemented, with more likely to come at a later date. The reason for the gradual implementation of measurements is, that it's vitally important to prevent a collapse of our systems by actually being able to follow them through.
The border to Italy has effectively been closed down. People who are not Austrian citizens are allowed to transit through Austria, but they may not leave their car in Austria to fill up gas for example. Universities are shut down and events/congregations of more than a 100 people have been banned. The government appealed to the people to remain calm and collected, and avoid unnecessary contact with other people. There is a hotline for people who think they might have contracted the virus, and nobody with flu-like symptoms is allowed to enter hospitals under any circumstance.

As I'm a working musician, this affects my livelihood rather drastically - although I have enough money saved to get by bye now. Still, this is kinda crazy.
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Re: FML general thread [8]

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Postby child of Lilith » Tue Mar 10, 2020 5:30 pm

^It sure does sound kinda crazy, but it's probably necessary. They're on the ball unlike many other countries. I can only hope my country is doing everything it can as well.
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Re: FML general thread [8]

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Postby Justacrazyguy » Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:18 pm

Portugal did nothing until we got a few cases, and now they're activating all measures. Would have been better if they did it before we had a bunch of infected people, but we only have 41 cases so far, so I'd say we're doing okay. I'm not scared anyway. I don't think, I hope, this doesn't affect my Master's in any significant way.
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Re: FML general thread [8]

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Postby pwhodges » Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:44 am

Meanwhile the British are panic-buying toilet paper, and the Bank of England has cut its base rate from 0.75% to 0.25% to help small businesses weather the crisis (or is that a political move ahead of today's budget, I wonder?).

And a Health Minister has the virus, who was in parliament and at a reception in Downing Street in the days after her symptoms appeared (but before the confirmation of the diagnosis). Allegedly she also held a constituency meeting after the diagnosis.
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Re: FML general thread [8]

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Postby TheFriskyIan » Sat Mar 14, 2020 4:10 pm

I take it back.
I take it back.
I take it back.
I take it back.

I don't want a free two week vacation, I don't want the pay for it either, I don't want any of this if this is the cost of it all and I hope the executive who made the decision I'm about to mention is ashamed of themselves. Disney just decided to terminate all their college program interns and they have until the 18th to leave their housing; International CPs have until the 18th to leave the country. Seeing as over half my operation is run by CPs I'm saying goodbye to 40+ some cast members tomorrow as the coordinator team is expected not to be there after tomorrow night. Some of them I have grown close and attached to, I don't think I can stomach showing up tomorrow but I'm forced to if I want to get a grasp on what's going to happen with my schedule after tomorrow since I'm not working today.

What kind of backwards reasoning is this? They say this is for the safety of everyone, what horseshit. Tell that a Chinese college student that's now being forced to fly back to the provinces and sit in quarantine for two weeks that this is all for his/her health. They're just as safe here if not more so, the company just doesn't want to pay them through the end of summer if they have to keep the parks closed. Literally the only college cast member I know who's safer going back home is from Zimbabwe, everyone else either lives in major cities in other states or in major cities in other countries where the virus is in full swing. This is ignoring the simple fact that they're all college students, and their chances of dying if they get it is literally 0.2%. "Yeah lol just ship them back to the virus hot-spots lmao."

I can't believe I'm saying this about a company that used common sense and logical reasoning to save me from an unjust firing last year, but this is an absolutely awful, uneducated, and stupid decision.
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Re: FML general thread [8]

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Postby robersora » Sat Mar 14, 2020 5:02 pm

^
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Postby Gus Hanson » Sun Mar 15, 2020 2:43 pm

And on a lighter note, I seem to have developed an addiction to buying on the internet through either Amazon or eBay knowing that eventually I will run out of funds. I might have to become cut off in order to nip this thing in the bud.
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Re: FML general thread [8]

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Postby silvermoonlight » Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:49 am

This is not a rant per say its more a question. Like is anyone else finding this Coronavirus really jarring? Like going into food shops and seeing utterly empty shelves and empty town streets its like something out of a doomsday movie or a zombie movie...its weird as hell.

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Postby robersora » Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:59 am

yeah, it's really weird, especially since it's juxtaposed with the spring reawakening of nature, sunny days and mild temperatures.
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Re: FML general thread [8]

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Postby Blockio » Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:03 am

It's definitely weird, yeah. Personally, I've also found some positives - uni was supposed to start by monday, but it's been delayed by four weeks, giving me plenty of time to do some stuff I've been meaning to do for a while.


On a more global note, a nice side effect of the shutdowns is a serious cutback in emissions. This might actually save our climate
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Re: FML general thread [8]

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Postby Mr. Tines » Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:23 am

View Original Postsilvermoonlight wrote:Like is anyone else finding this Coronavirus really jarring?
Having had little reason to leave the house this year (well, at least since I got a squat rack for my home gym back in January), and having been doing all the grocery shopping online for 20-odd years now, the only thing I've really noticed recently has been the pleasing lack of crowds of Chinese tourists as I've been cycling through town.

View Original Postrobersora wrote:the spring reawakening of nature, sunny days and mild temperatures.
Along those lines, one thing I did notice last week was the fields of oilseed rape starting to burst into flower. An early hay-fever season is just what we want ... not!
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Postby Gus Hanson » Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:11 pm

Speaking the truth here, I think I suffer from OCD because I obsess over the small and big things to the point of exhaustion and it takes it's toll on my body. I should talk to my doc about it.
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Re: FML general thread [8]

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Postby Mr. Tines » Tue Mar 17, 2020 6:49 am

We are now officially amongst "those elderly neighbours you need to keep an eye on" -- our next-door neighbours are being very solicitous, and helpful, now that there's a soft lock-down going for those deemed vulnerable, for which I'm very grateful, but it's rather more sobering than getting the first letters from Saga on one's 50th birthday.

View Original Postsilvermoonlight wrote:Like going into food shops and seeing utterly empty shelves

Today, it's going to book a grocery delivery and not getting a slot until early April, since everyone has had the same idea.
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Re: FML general thread [8]

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Postby pwhodges » Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:10 am

Really confused feelings. Today I was supposed to be travelling to Bury for the funeral tomorrow of the daughter of a close friend who killed herself three weeks ago. I decided that I would not go to the ceremony or the wake (well over 100 people expected), but would still go up to see the friend and support her. But this morning she phoned to say that if I wasn't going to the ceremony she'd rather we didn't come. I think she's actually miffed, but I guess she's currently so turned in on herself that she's not really taking in what's happening in the outside world.

We did go and help her for several days immediately after the death, so I guess in the end she'll remember that.
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