DISNEY buys FOX

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Postby Gendo'sPapa » Thu Feb 08, 2018 4:40 pm

Called it.
In Fall 2019, when Disney launches their Streaming Service designed to directly compete with Netflix, one of their launch titles is going to be the first expensive live action Star Wars series.

http://deadline.com/2018/02/disney-streaming-service-launch-slate-star-wars-marvel-1202281846/

Disney, not wanting to be second place in any market, is not just going to rest on Star Wars. They're going to use the one thing they have at their disposal that Netflix does not have. NAME BRANDS! . Their streaming service will also launch with/soon feature a Monsters Inc. TV series (most likely to be animated by Pixar with the original voices), a live action Marvel series (which most likely will actually feature characters & actors from the movies in prominent lead or supporting roles & not just have someone show up in cameos or exist as a passing reference through dialogue).

Disney is going to hold back a couple already finished or soon to be finished movies that were intended for theatrical release to launch with the service and may very well have a few other BIG movies ready for launch.

Basically, Disney will own all.

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Postby Chuckman » Thu Feb 08, 2018 5:28 pm

If they start really blurring the lines between theatrical releases and television in terms of production value and casting, that's pretty much the end of movie theaters.

That may not give them the supremacy you expect.
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Postby robersora » Thu Feb 08, 2018 11:17 pm

All I wanna know is, what that means for Kingdom Hearts 3, tho.
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Postby Gendo'sPapa » Tue Mar 19, 2019 3:06 pm

Disney's acquisition of Fox will be complete by the end of the day.
Sigh..... there's a whole essay I could write about how this is not good for producers and consumers of entertainment but all the bad that's going to directly affect people from this merger (friends of mine included who are about to lose their jobs & more) will be quickly swept aside the minute Marvel announces a new MCU set X-Men movie for 2021.

So yeah. Disney owns Fox. That's all I got.

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Postby robersora » Tue Mar 19, 2019 3:34 pm

By the time KH4 rolls around we hopefully get a Simpsons-world, a Star Wars world (that could tie in nicely with the Gummi Ship Segments and/or Guardians of the Galaxy nicely segwaying into a Marvel World), TWEWY is already confirmed I guess.
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Postby El Squibbonator » Tue Mar 19, 2019 5:10 pm

View Original PostGendo'sPapa wrote:Disney's acquisition of Fox will be complete by the end of the day.
Sigh..... there's a whole essay I could write about how this is not good for producers and consumers of entertainment but all the bad that's going to directly affect people from this merger (friends of mine included who are about to lose their jobs & more) will be quickly swept aside the minute Marvel announces a new MCU set X-Men movie for 2021.

So yeah. Disney owns Fox. That's all I got.


I've been predicting this from day one. All of the major acquisitions Disney has made since Bob Iger became CEO-- Marvel, Lucasfilm, and Fox-- were made for one purpose and one purpose only. And that purpose is to give Disney more name-brand franchises to fill niches in the market that it doesn't already cover. To wit:
Marvel-- Gave Disney a foothold in the superhero genre, which was becoming popular, and allowed the company to sell more products to boys (at the time Disney was associated mostly with girls)
Lucasfilm--Allowed Disney to make movies in the science-fiction genre, when its in-house movies in said genre underperformed. Also, like Marvel, increased the company's appeal to male audiences.
Fox-- Gave Disney a 66% stake in streaming platform Hulu, the rights to most other Marvel characters, National Geographic as a venue for documentaries, multiple franchises aimed at older audiences.

One thing you'll notice from looking at these purchases is that they never buy the same thing twice. For example, in late 2014 there was a persistent rumor that Disney was going to buy Time Warner. They easily could have, but they didn't. Why? Because there was nothing they had that Disney didn't already have. Time Warner has DC Comics, but Disney already has Marvel. They have an animation studio and a live-action movie studio, but Disney has those too.
Fox, as I explained above, gave Disney things it didn't already have, things that no other company would have given them.

To use an appropriately Disney-related metaphor, think of all these purchases as the Infinity Stones filling the Infinity Gauntlet. Remember how Thanos spent most of the Marvel Cinematic Universe hunting down the Infinity Stones so that he could control all of reality with the Infinity Gauntlet? That's basically what Disney has been doing with its purchases. First they went for Marvel, then they went for Star Wars, then they went for all the franchises Fox has to offer. And now, with their streaming service, they will control those franchises and make billions from them. The final stone has been placed in the gauntlet; Thanos has won.

I don't expect Disney to be making any more big purchases after this one for a very long time. They aren't going to need to, not when they can use their new streaming service and their unparalleled array of franchises to strangle any competition. What we're seeing is the climax of a decade-long effort by the company to control as many franchises as possible. If you understand Disney's strategy, it all makes sense.
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Postby Chuckman » Tue Mar 19, 2019 9:50 pm

Not that I would want it happen but since Warner owns DC comics and not just the rights, of Disney had bought the whole smash it would have brought the two houses under the same roof. That would be... interesting from a comic book fan perspective.
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Postby FreakyFilmFan4ever » Wed Mar 20, 2019 11:08 am

You’re not thinking with portals just yet.

Warner own DC.

Warner own Looney Toones.

So?

SpaceJam 2, where the Justice League has to team up with the Looney Toones (and Lebron James, I guess) in order to defeat Darkseid on the basketball court in a game that will decide the fate of the universe.

The twist? Lebron James is the new Deadshot, because he never misses a basket.

If that doesn’t run circles around Marvel, then I don’t know what will.
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Postby Chuckman » Wed Mar 20, 2019 3:07 pm

It’s WB, so Darkseid will be depicted as a spooky cloud and Bugs Bunny will be a brooding dork.
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Postby El Squibbonator » Wed Mar 20, 2019 6:03 pm

You guys are missing the point.

All I was trying to say is that Disney doesn't need to buy out all of its remaining competitors (which at this point would just be Warner Bros., Universal, and Sony) if it can effectively limit the area in which they can operate, and marginalize their market share. And by launching their streaming service with all the franchises they've acquired from Marvel, Lucasfilm, and Fox, that's exactly what they're going to do. They'll be obeying the letter of monopoly law, but not the spirit of it.
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Postby TheFriskyIan » Thu Mar 21, 2019 10:11 pm

Will this have any affect on the Alien franchise?
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Postby Gendo'sPapa » Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:52 pm

If it's a Fox series, expect major changes.

Most likely future for the Alien franchise - Streaming Series. It costs a lot to make an Alien film - FX for the monster naturally, but also because the films take place in the future and in space that means EVERY location and EVERY prop has to be designed and built from the ground up and that adds up cost wise - but as far as theatrical runs go the Alien series isn't that big of a money earner. Even adjusted for inflation, the highest earner in the series, Ridley Scott's original, would have a total theatrical gross of $284 million. That's huge for one of the greatest movies of all time that has remained relevant for 40 years but it's also what Captain Marvel did in two weeks. Even Aliens when adjusted for inflation is a paltry $207 million. The R rating keeps a lot of people away & with a few exceptions audiences don't go see creature features that much anymore in theaters. On home video and merchandize wise the Alien series is a super huge money earner but not so much in theaters. The big rumor has been a live action Alien series for HULU because Disney now essentially owns Hulu* and can use it as a home for their more adult geared releases while Disney+ is the moneymaker with all the Disney brandname releases like Pixar, Marvel, Star Wars, Princesses, etc. The other talk I've heardI've heard some talk that Disney wants to make nice with Ridley Scott and his very powerful Scott Free Production company - that house has a lot of things in development Disney would love to have - and may be willing to give Scott a much reduced budget for a final Alien film to close off his series but even I, someone who loves Alien: Covenant, doesn't thing that's gonna happen. I would place all bets on an Alien Streaming series in a few years. A couple of bug hunts. Maybe an anthology series. Would be genuinely surprised if another solo Alien movie ever gets released to theaters.

Outside of Alien:

Disney is saying otherwise to the press BUT the plan is to let the TV unit keep doing what they doing and move all that to Hulu (another story here but me thinks Netflix's future is fucked) and turn 20th Century Fox the movie studio into another brand like Marvel or Pixar or Star Wars. Turn Fox into the "Disney With Edge" brand that'll put out two to three large-scale guaranteed blockbusters every year. It would follow Disney current model plan as of late which has been to produce as few films as possible for maximum investment. About 8 theatrical films a year. All expensive blockbusters. All pretty much guaranteed to make money because of their connection to pre-existing franchises or universes. They put out 3 Marvel, a Pixar, a Disney Animation, two to three Disney classic "Live Action" remakes and a Star War. That's the yearly slate. There's been the occasional "A Wrinkle in Time" or whatever that Nutcracker movie was that bombs but Disney is phasing those out with only something called Artemis Fowl on the docket to release.

20th Century meanwhile generally produced 15 to 20 films a year of all types. Some were small dramas - Love Simon, Hidden Figures - some were more mid-level auteur driven films - Bad Times At the El Royale, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Post, A Cure For Wellness, Murder on the Orient Express - some were guaranteed blockbusters with a bit of an edge, - Logan, Deadpool 2, War For the Planet of the Apes - and some were big, expensive swings that could either deliver huge - anything directed by James Cameron, The Greatest Showman - or would miss - Alita: Battle Angel. Basically, Fox was focused on making a diverse slate of films made of big winners, small earners and a few risks that could be major earners if they delivered. They took risks. Disney doesn't do risk. Once Fox's current batch of films already too far in production to cancel are done - James Gray expensive sci-fi drama Ad Astra, James Mangold's drama Ford v. Ferrari, Kenneth Branagh's Orient Express sequel Death on the Nile - the plan is to take Fox's theatrical development slate down to about two to four movies a year.

I mean one day in and Disney has already killed Fox 2000, Fox's film division that was solely focused on producing lower to mid range budget films. They're the team that made films like Love Simon, The Devil Wears Prada, Fault in Our Stars, Joy, Bridge of Spies, etc.

https://deadline.com/2019/03/elizabeth-gabler-fox-2000-to-shutter-as-disney-takes-over-1202580356/

Theatrically at least I figure Fox will be Disney's "Edgy Brand". Two to four blockbusters a year that will be relatively safe in message & content but will be a little more violent & edgy. Like a new Deadpool or Deadpool-esque comic book flick every couple years. If this Kingsman spin-off prequel works they'll turn that into a mini-universe.

And of course, Disney now has four new James Cameron AVATAR sequels on their calendar set for between now and 2025.

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Postby El Squibbonator » Fri Mar 22, 2019 12:13 am

Disney needs to revisit their roots. As a company, they were BUILT on risk. Walt Disney was a risk-taker. An animated feature-length film in 1937, at a time when people thought animation was only good for 10-minute shorts? They said it couldn't be done, but he did it. A theme park based on movies and cartoon characters? Once again, Disney proved the doubters wrong. Even after Walt's death, the company kept on innovating.
Animated TV series that don't just exist to sell toys? Sure, why not!
Movies made entirely with computers? We'll make so many that you'll be tired of them!

Point is, Disney used to be all about innovation, about risk, about trying new things. Not anymore. Nowadays, Disney is content to let other companies do its innovating for it, then buy them up and take credit for their work. It doesn't just rub me the wrong way in the sense that it's making the company too powerful--it also genuinely offends me as a Disney fan. This isn't what Disney should stand for. There's none of the old Disney innovation left.
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Postby robersora » Fri Mar 22, 2019 7:35 am

That's why there's monopoly laws, I guess. There is no incentive to take risks, when you're alone. Bad for consumers, but who even cares about people, at this point, lel.
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Postby Chuckman » Fri Mar 22, 2019 8:48 am

My prediction is that movie theaters will now finish transforming into an activity rather than a medium for art. Disney won’t enter into the market by actually taking over a theater chain for fear of the antitrust ramifications... although they could if they felt like it and they would be fine. Anti trust law in modern America is a joke. Disney *writes our intellectual property laws.* Eiger or whoever runs Disney now (I’ve stopped making the effort to differentiate white people in suits: the Egregore has but one face) could walk into the White House and take a big “I got high and drank a fifth of tequila and fourteen tacos and a bag of sugar free gummy bears” shit on Trump’s desk and he’d offer to wipe, but I digress.

What they would do (well, what I would do) is use their just shy of half of the market to further restrict theaters. They already force them into agreements that favor Disney films, and they will begin structuring further agreements so that it just doesn’t make sense for theaters to be much of anything besides an *exlerience* centered on Disney content. With no differentiated content and a shrinking market eroded by streaming and the artistic vigor of the long form storytelling in “tv”, theaters will become more gimmicky and theme park-y to compete with one another. Indie films and art films will find their venues shrinking even further into an anti-experience aimed at selling adult audiences on the nostalgic appeal of the traditional theater. Once we’ve had a second generation grow up with supercomputers in their pockets the theater concept will start dying.

Long term, the question is whether Disney can manage the transition of the entertainment industry into a completely new form that doesn’t fit established models of consumption of their product. They’re clearly already pivoting in that direction.

Fifty years from now a movie theater will be a place people visit in a VR helmet, to watch movies that are entirely CG with actors who do not exist, created for each film. By then it wouldn’t surprise me if strong AI is writing the scripts as well. In the very long run I wonder if tech will reach a point where distribution is the only problem facing a small studio or even an individual who can make a movie that’s virtually indistinguishable from a “Hollywood” production.

Either way, movie theaters as a venue are a hobbling relic waiting to keel over. Disney will reign supreme for a time, maybe decades, but simply being a bigger powerful company that has a huge market share does not ensure domination or longevity without a dynamic, creative, and risk-taking corporate leadership.

If simply being big and old made companies dominate the word would be run by Sears and GM. Sears, I think, will be the model for the death of Disney; it’s often said that Sears could have been Amazon of they tried, but therapist utterly wrong. The entire business and operational model of Sears with their mail order catalog was completely wrong and only thrived (until it stopped) because of sheer market size. Sears never could have made the necessary changes, they’d have had to tear down and rebuild their corporate structure and logistics chain from the ground up. In essence they’d have had to liquidate and start a new company. In other words, spot a trend early, adapt to it, and take a massive risk with a very high chance of failure. That’s not something corporate monoliths are very good at.

Future business historians might look at this as the decision Disney made that led to its death or restructuring. They’re ultimately betting on a failing business model here, unless the company is actively internally planning to kill, or at least marginalize, the concept of the theatrical release and movie theaters in general.

View Original Postrobersora wrote:That's why there's monopoly laws, I guess. There is no incentive to take risks, when you're alone. Bad for consumers, but who even cares about people, at this point, lel.


Rhetorical question but, no one. The end state of capitalism is the last human floating in space, awed by the sight of the entire Earth remade into a single gargantuan can of Coke.
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Postby robersora » Fri Mar 22, 2019 9:17 am

View Original PostChuckman wrote:My prediction is that movie theaters will now finish transforming into an activity rather than a medium for art.

Haven't they always been this wa though? Like many people I know go to the movies, because "it's a thing to do". They don't want to be engaged, just an escape for a few hours. Like Laser Tag.

Either way, interesting analysis, I've never even heard of sears, for what it's worth. Nokia also comes to mind, or Kodak. Nintendo made a huge comeback, revitalizing themselves with the Switch (as they did with the Wii), and for Sony, a lot hinges on PS5, since everything else they produce, nobody buys any longer atm.
(Tangent: While my Sony phone was pretty, but it was delicate as fuck. It fell from the couch table onto carpeted floor and it had a microcracks in the display which made the touch screen unusable. At the time I was pretty poor, so I resorted to using a mouse to navigate the phone... good times. It wasn't just me, also. My flat mate and my sister had the same problem. And the web was full with angry customers)
Either way, what I wanna say is, huge corporations don't just die away because they fuck up badly... there is the chance for comeback. And as of yet, Disney hasn't even made mistakes.


View Original PostChuckman wrote:The end state of capitalism is the last human floating in space, awed by the sight of the entire Earth remade into a single gargantuan can of Coke.

Which is basically what Yui does in Eoe. God bless Eva.
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Postby Chuckman » Fri Mar 22, 2019 1:44 pm

For about 70 years the Sears Roebuck Company was *the* retailer. They exploded by become the first true mail order store, publishing huge catalogs that sold almost everything, including prefab houses. The Sears catalog is so significant that it’s a topic of historical study for experts in material culture.

Since no one could really compete with them, they became bloated- an overabudance of executives, greater emphasis on retail stores, and an ever slower logistics chain. Sears’ main business was shipping goods from catalogs, but eventually delivery could take *two weeks*.

When the Internet came along, Sears did not recognize its value to retail, but would not have capitalized on it if they did. Their logistical network, based around big distribution centers that handed packages off to common carriers and retail stores, was totally different from Amazon’s model. The Sears district network was designed to cut costs. Their corporate philosophy was to maximize earnings with margins. Amazon put speed above cost and operates on low margins. Totally different model.

When this got critically bad, Sears made several mistakes. First, they backed off delivery sales hard, switching focus to their generic, unpleasant, outdated and frequently understaffed retail stores. They also bought out competing retail giant K-Mart, which was a chain of generic, outdated, unpleasant retail stores. They abandoned their main business model in favor of focusing on being a poor competitor to JC Penny and bought out a poor competitor to Wal Mart.

The company is now in a death spiral and has been for years, and is only lurching along because the current CEO hopes to get some value back from all their retail locations.

He won’t, though, because the time for that was twenty years ago. No one wants to buy or lease an empty anchor store in a dead local mall.

If Disney is too big they will be poorly placed to take advantage of a new business model, should one arrive. If they’re too mired in their steady, low risk operations when a major disruption hits, a smart competitor will overtake them.

Remember, Amazon was nothing fifteen years ago and during its first decade in operation news articles predicted its death every day because it was bleeding money. Risk. Reward.

What’s interesting about the film business is that money is not in originality. Original works aren’t the big money makers. Every Disney animated feature is an adaptation or a rip off of something. Any list of most profitable or critically acclaimed movies is riddled with films that were adapted from books, biopics, historical fiction, etc. Lack of originality isn’t what will kill Disney, they’ve really never been original in the first place. It’ll be a business trend, a new tech, or even something as simple as changing trends in consumer taste that the behemoth has gotten too big to respond to.

If the Disney leadership is smart they’ll decentralize and make “Disney” a holding company with semi-autonomous units carved out and organized from their existing business combined with compact, tightly organized groups from their new acquisitions.

If they try to make the Marvel and Star Wars properties a “Disney” thing they’ll be making a tremendous mistake. If I were in charge of Disney I’d convert Disney itself into animated films and merchandising only and put competent people in charge of divisions for everything else, and make them tightly knit and competitive. Want to make a Star Wars movie? Convince me it’ll make more than the epic Stilt Man adaptation I was pitched yesterday.

Business model and strategy make companies successful, not product.
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Postby El Squibbonator » Fri Mar 22, 2019 4:57 pm

to watch movies that are entirely CG with actors who do not exist, created for each film

Wait, does that mean we're finally going to get more animated movies aimed at adults?

In all seriousness, you make a good point with your Sears comparison. I think another good comparison would be the fate of the Curtiss aircraft company after World War II. See, up until the 1940s, Curtiss was one of the big names in American aviation. They had a reputation for building planes that were fast, safe, and reliable, and some of their products were world famous, like the P-40 fighter and the C-46 cargo plane. By 1945, they were one of the biggest aircraft companies in America.
So what happened? World War II ended. Other companies, like Boeing and Lockheed, were able to transition to the jet age just fine, but Curtiss wasn't. They had becoming so successful doing the same thing for so long that it never occurred to them to innovate and change. They couldn't adapt to an industry that had, by this point, made them obsolete. So after making one last prototype airplane in 1948, the company folded.
That's the fate of all companies that become too big. They stop innovating, and eventually times change and they can't keep up. Disney might be high and mighty now, but just you wait. Their slice of humble pie is inevitable.
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Postby Chuckman » Fri Mar 22, 2019 8:32 pm

They’re definitely not innovating.

If you want a look at what they will become if they don’t find talent and get out of the way, take a hard look at A Wrinkle In Time.
Last edited by Chuckman on Fri Mar 22, 2019 9:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby FreakyFilmFan4ever » Fri Mar 22, 2019 8:57 pm

I don't think movies themselves will change that much in the next 50 years. Theaters will definitely, but not movies. VR experience will be it's own, separate thing, like 4-D theme park attractions. And, who knows, maybe 50 years from now all theaters will only be theme park attractions. They kind of started off as that anyway, back in the early 1900's when the whole spectacle of a movie was "Look, Ethel! That picture moves!"

But nobody's gonna stop making movies. Home theaters have already advanced to the point now where I can buy a THX Certified Panasonic OLED 4K TV and have a better picture quality than my local 2K digitally converted cinema. Sure, the argument for the superiority of 35/70mm film is as strong as it ever was, but what's the point of those arguments when most theaters are digitally converted anyway? Movies and TV shows, in the traditional sense of the term, will be safe on home theater systems and the like, whether it be streaming or the collection of physical media. Even if Hollywood become like AAA video game companies and provide only "live services" for streaming VR content, that'll only free up the indie market to chine brighter and better than before.
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