What if the lance didn't work out as intended in ep 22?

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What if the lance didn't work out as intended in ep 22?

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Postby bananafire » Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:07 am

What if the lance refused to be pulled out from Lilith in ep22? What if the lance missed? How will that change everything?

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Re: What if the lance didn't work out as intended in ep 22?

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Postby Blockio » Tue Jan 02, 2018 8:04 am

Since the lance literally was the weapon of last resort, this would have basically meant that Arael would have won, whatever that means.
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Re: What if the lance didn't work out as intended in ep 22?

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Postby mys_721tx » Wed Jan 24, 2018 10:50 pm

They could try Operation Yashima II.

Since the lance hits the Moon in one shot, for a back of the envelope calculation, we can assume that the lance reached escape velocity, 11.18 km/s. Assuming the lance has a mass of 1000 t, the kinetic energy Unit 00 needs to transfer is about 62.5 TJ.

The electricity production in Japan in 2015 is 1009 TWh, the average power is 114.2 GW. Allowing for one hour charging time and assuming 100% efficiency, the energy collected is 411 TJ, which is about the yield of 98.23 kt TNT. If the AT field can be breached, the energy required to destroy an angel, Ramiel at least, is not that impressive --- We have nukes in the megaton ranges.

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Re: What if the lance didn't work out as intended in ep 22?

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Postby Lyrical » Thu Jan 25, 2018 2:09 am

There are some unknowns here though. Did the Spear travel purely under the force of Eva-00's throw or did it accelerate itself? (Relevant because we know the Lance is capable of autonomous flight.) Does electricity production of Japan in Eva match what it would be in our world's equivalent? (Can't take it for granted because their world has very different tech from us, even ignoring Eva - just look at the MAGI's existence. It's possible that their rate of electricity production is way higher.) How does Ramiel's AT Field compare to Arael's? Would Arael have just evaded if they tried lancing it with the positron laser? (Again, this is where the Lance's self-motivated flight becomes relevant — Arael didn't try escaping it, but that might simply be because the Lance would have homed in on it and nailed it anyway.)

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Re: What if the lance didn't work out as intended in ep 22?

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Postby mys_721tx » Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:26 am

View Original PostLyrical wrote:Did the Spear travel purely under the force of Eva-00's throw or did it accelerate itself?


Gravitational force is conservative. Regardless of source, the energy needed to reach a given distance is the same. Although gravitional potential energy will be a better estimate than kinetic energy.

Lyrical wrote:It's possible that their rate of electricity production is way higher.


If our estimated power production is off by 100-fold, the yield will still be in megatons. Although Episode 6 definitely made a point that the energy must be delivered in a short time window so that Ramiel could not destroy the payload in flight.

Lyrical wrote:Would Arael have just evaded if they tried lancing it with the positron laser?


Unit 00 did attempt a shot with the positron canon. However, the energy is insufficient to penetrate Arael's AT field. It is hard to say whether Arael did not see it as a threat or it would not evade any incoming fires at all.

The endgame for Arael is also interesting to think about. It seems that Arael was attempting to disable the EVA pilots. However, while it pinned down Unit 02, it is oblivious to Unit 00's activity. If what Kaworu said is true, for Arael to initiate the third impact, it needs physical contact with Adam. It means the potential close quarter combat with EVAs, which they excel at, on its way to the Terminal Dogma. Since Arael's mind-reading ray is essentially an AT field, it probably could not go through walls anyway short of punching a hole in them. Can it knock an EVA out in a complex environment such as the Central Dogma where Nerv can set up multiple ambushes? Was it there to stall the situation long enough so that another angel to attack from the surface? Do angels ever collaborate?

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Re: What if the lance didn't work out as intended in ep 22?

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Postby Blockio » Thu Jan 25, 2018 12:18 pm

I dont think saying "yeah apart from mindrape sniping Arael is helpless" is the right approach... Id even go as far as saying that it is stupid to the point of being straigthup suicidal. Yes, Arael might be completely helpless in close-quarters combat, but it might as well turn into Zeruel 2.0 upon contact with oxygen.

And regarding the use of the positron sniper rifle and the way the lance works:
1) there was no way of telling how long Arael would remain passive and what it would do if it decided to act
2) Unlike Ramiel, who was completely stationary, Arael is capable of moving
3) I am no expert at physics and density, but I am certain that the Lance of Longinus is a lot heavier than 1000 tons. The Kamikaze-class destroyer, which is about the same length (102m) as the lance is, if we assume that the oerall height is the same is in the rebuilds (80m), and it already has a displacement of over 1400 tons (couldnt find anything on the actual vessel wright of any comparable ship). Yes, the lance is slimmer, but unlike the lance, a naval vessel is hollow.
4) the lance was most definitely accelerating of its own, because there simply is no way even an Eva can throw something this massive at escape velocity (see how Unit 02 struggels with the cruiser in EoE)
5) as seen in EoE as well, the lance returns from the moon without any external help and
6) as we see both with the lance itself and the replicas, it actively corrupts AT fields, meaning that the lance has much more to it than brute kinetic force

So yeah, I think its pretty safe to say that the Positron Sniper Rifle probably wouldnt have worked either if the ultimate plot device lance of longinus failed
Why don't you save the Princess next time instead of being such a baby? She would love it and maybe you could get a sweet kiss. ~ sadly not Mari in Q (Joseki)

What about titty-ten? ~ Reichu

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Re: What if the lance didn't work out as intended in ep 22?

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Postby AdamMalkovitch » Thu Jan 25, 2018 2:27 pm

If the lance refused to be pulled from Lilith, Arael would've probably gone on down to Central Dogma to fuse with Lilith. If it accidentally brushed against the lance during fusion, it might've frozen it, and since the lance was in Lilith anyways, I doubt she'd be able to take on any other form, so Arael would just be stuck inside a dormant Lilith. If the spear was ever pulled, Third Impact would surely take place, and completely wipe out humanity.

If the lance missed... oops. Everyone's fucked.
I've reached a point where I just generally don't give a fuck anymore. In a good way.

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Re: What if the lance didn't work out as intended in ep 22?

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Postby mys_721tx » Thu Jan 25, 2018 11:45 pm

View Original PostBlockio#872241 wrote:but I am certain that the Lance of Longinus is a lot heavier than 1000 tons. The Kamikaze-class destroyer, which is about the same length (102m) as the lance is, if we assume that the oerall height is the same is in the rebuilds (80m), and it already has a displacement of over 1400 tons (couldnt find anything on the actual vessel wright of any comparable ship). Yes, the lance is slimmer, but unlike the lance, a naval vessel is hollow.


The kinetic energy increases linearly as the mass increases. Even if the mass estimation is off by 100 folds, the kinetic energy will not be something out of reach of current technology. (~6.25 PJ, or 1.5 megaton TNT) The calculation, however, did ignore the energy loss from punching through Arael. I agree that the lance is capable of autonomous flight and can change its velocity by a great amount in short time.


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