backup on a larger image host that compresses more: https://i.imgur.com/lKkNwNG.jpg
vector which should be more readable on mobile phones or smaller monitors (kindly made by SandroHc): https://a.pomf.space/bksywkdgyrzi.svg
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I was listening to Sakura Nagashi and I had an epiphany about Rebuild.
This relies also on theories that have been kicking around my head for years and it would take forever to throw them all out, but here are the fresh parts that can be speedily said.
Watching flowers just blossomed fall
"Too early, this year" you said,
In disappointment, regret
And you were beautiful
This seems to refer to Shinji based on the rest of the song.
"Watching flowers just blossomed fall" - the timeline cycle? You can (not) redo.
"Too early, this year" - Shinji becomes aware of all the loops right before the next one is initiated?
Perhaps when instrumentality comes, and everyone can see each other's memories, Shinji is granted knowledge of past timelines, maybe from Kaworu or somebody else who is timeline cognizant.
Meaning is not totally clear.
If you could see me now
I wonder what you would think
Me, living without you
Whoever is speaking to Shinji is not with him anymore. She is living in a universe without him, and him without her.
There is only one primary character who does not appear in Rebuild. That's Asuka Langley Soryu. Shikinami is not her.
In End of Evangelion there was a deleted live action sequence in which Asuka lived in a universe where Shinji did not exist. In this world, Asuka is 24 years old. In Rebuild, all of the Children including Shinji are 24 years old.
https://wiki.evageeks.org/Resources:End_of_Evangelion_Screenplays_(Episode_26%27) - Ctrl-f "I need you"
In this world Asuka confesses to a spectral Rei that her existence is bleak and meaningless. The title screen for this scene was "I need you." (This screen was later moved in front of the final scene of EoE.)
Long before where that scene was supposed to be placed, in EoE when Shinji is telling God Rei why he wants to die, he tells her: "No one needs me, so it's better if I don't exist."
It is possible that Shinji ended up in no-Asuka world, and Asuka in no-Shinji world, because Shinji made that wish to God Rei during EoE.
Everybody finds love
In the end
Unclear meaning.
>If you could hear the newborn's cry, sound and healthy
Ringing in the town you protected
I know you would be so pleased
The footsteps that continue after us
This is the line which tells us the song is about Shinji.
In NGE's early episodes Misato had a conversation like this with Shinji, but I don't think the song's narrator is Misato. I think it's Anno recycling an idea he had used before. An older, wiser Asuka is saying it here.
Everybody finds love
In the end
I can't believe that I'll never see you again
I haven't told you anything yet
I haven't told you anything yet
I imagine Utada is privy to whatever concealed information this song is waving in front of our faces.
There are two options for what the narrator is saying here: steadfastly, "Against all odds, I believe we will meet again" OR "It is unfair and tragic that we will never meet again"
Utada's tone of singing gives away little to indicate either option. There is tragic sadness in her voice at the first line, then what sounds like growing determination in the last two lines. Repeating it (louder & more forcefully the second time) almost seems like she's reassuring herself of why they must/will meet again.
Watching flowers just blossomed fall
The trees stood by, helpless
Again about the freshly blossomed flowers dying.
I can't look at this and think it's about anything but an Impact/timeline loop, and everything being reset just to bloom and die again.
However great the fear, I will not look away
If at the end of everything, there is love
The second line seems to mean she thinks they will meet at the end of all this.
It's possible the final scene of Rebuild will echo the first and final scenes of NGE, just like the first shot of Rebuild eerily echoed the first and last shot of NGE. The two of them on a red shore. 3.0+1.0
TLDR: Asuka and Shinji are living in universes where the other doesn't exist. They will probably reunite at the end of Rebuild.
This leaves a question: who is Shikinami? Was part of Soryu's soul split, like her mother, and that became Shikinami?
This can explain why Shikinami is both like and unlike Soryu. Surface level personality is similar, but she has an affinity for dolls...
Shikinami's backstory seems to be avoided almost purposely, as if it is withheld because her backstory would reveal something critical about Rebuild.